Estimating the IQ of L and Light.

In death note, L and Light took a university entrance exam and both topped the rankings with a perfect score. Given the average IQ of college students in the USA is 105 due to selection bias and that Japan has a national IQ of 106, the average IQ of teenagers taking the Japanese college entrance …

Estimating Magnus Carlsen’s IQ

Regression to the mean is a fucking horrible bitch. She took Aella by the tits and ripped them off, now she will take Carlsen by the dick and give the shaft a nice slice. For whatever reason the commonly accepted IQ of magnus carlsen is 190 - I think this is because people seem to …

Estimating FORG1VEN’s IQ

Introduction FORG1VEN is an infamous LoL pro who played primarily in 2014-2016, who was known for his skill and strange personality. By strange personality, he has a tendency to get angry at teammates if they don't play up to his standards [interview 1] [interview 2] [interview 3] and he makes what can only be called …

Estimating Scott Alexander’s IQ

There is only one good piece of evidence regarding Scott's IQ, which is this: -He says he got a perfect score on the verbal SAT, and a "good-but-not-great" score on the math SAT. People tend to think in sets of 5-10, which suggests to me his interval for "good-but-not-great" is 600-700, where "great" is 700-800, …

Estimate Kanye West’s IQ

Kanye West has attracted lots of media attention for his recent comments about politics and his outrageous personality. This narcissistic, highly confident, and creative personality doesn't seem to be anything new based on interviews and anecdotes of him. Given that Kanye is Black, the starting assumption that all estimates should be regressed to is 85. …

Estimating Joseph Bronski’s IQ

According to information Bronski himself disclosed in the exousiology manuscript, he achieved a 1580 on the SAT and a 338/400 on the GRE. The former translates to an IQ of 134 and the latter translates to roughly the 96th percentile in math and the 98th percentile in verbal ability. Within the SAT, somebody who achieved …

Estimating Eliezer Yudkowsky’s IQ

From his old website: "I was eleven, in 7th grade, when I took the SAT. I got 670 Verbal, 740 Math. I placed - out of the entire 7th grade of the Midwest - 2nd place Combined, 2nd place Verbal, and 3rd place Math. There is a certificate on my wall from Northwestern University. It says: "Eliezer S. …

Estimating Aella’s IQ

Regression to the mean is a nasty bitch, and she isn't kind to gifted children. Especially female gifted children. Why do I say this? Women tend to biologically develop faster than men do, so they score higher on IQ tests when they are younger (Lynn, 1994). As they grow older, the advantage men have in …

How do Works of Art get Overrated?

I have noticed that people talk about overrated things like the overratedness occurred due to an astrological coincidence. Take these examples of reddit comments replying to a thread asking about overrated anime as an example: To be fair to the last comment, they were at least willing to ask themselves why people like it, so …

Taking and Rating Political Tests

note: auth vs lib will be inconsistent for me because it will depend on the questions they ask. I lean left on sex/general autonomy/prostitution/religion, right on lgbt/divorce/gendershit. I have a nationalist worldview, but don't feel patriotic, so questions aimed at asking about personal patriotism will fail. List: Political Compass Test - 4/10 IDRLABS - 6/10 …

Intelligence is not Pareto Distributed

Windsor Swan has argued on his substack that intelligence is pareto distributed, not normally distributed. If this was the case, the IQ distribution would be converted to this scale: I think this is intuitively ridiculous, though I have statistical and theoretical evidence to support why I think intelligence is close to normally distribution Theoretical Evidence …

Reaction Time and Gaming Skill

The idea behind why simple reaction time matters in games is because the state of the game and your decisions will be more closely aligned than the other players, leading to more precise play. Some famous highlights are based solely on fast reaction times, for example: Faker UZI FORG1VEN FORG1VEN WildTurtle I have several lines …

Online Reaction Time Tests Unreliable Across Setups and Tests

To evaluate this, I chose 5 tests I have not used in the last year, I did 5 tries on each, then 5 in the reverse order. This is to diminish the practice effect generated from doing them all. I did it on my PC first then on my laptop. The PC has a 240Hz …

Data Damage in an AI Study on Predicting Professional LoL

Study Link Damaged Data Link MyProof For those who don't know how League of Legends works, you have 5 players fight to kill the main building on a large map. You have two sides, red and blue. You have 5 roles: Top, Jungle, Mid, ADC, and Support. Top goes to the top lane, jungler kills …

Random Thoughts on Pokemon Designs

see here for a good list of all of them. there is a gradual decrease in "familiarity" where pokemon designs less effectively communicate what the pokemon does, which accelerates past gen 5. pokemon designs get progressively more complex, resulting in more variance in design quality. i think this is why people tend to dislike pokemon …

Deceitfulness by Race

data+code The NLSY has done humanity a great service by having two variables in their NLSY97 dataset: one is a parent-rated assessment of whether an individual lies or cheats and another where that individual reports whether they lie or cheat. The correlation between these two variables was 0.234: low reliability , but good enough for …

Idea on how Power Should be Analyzed

(potential schizopost incoming) billionairesacademiaCIAlib mediabillionaires10.150.050.4academia0.110.20.5CIA0.150.1510.25lib media0.20.350.151nxn influence matrix On the row the influence an institution has over other institutions is outlined. As a result, you can also observe the dependencies an institution has. For example, billionaires have an influence of 0.15 over academia, and lib media has an influence of 0.2 over the police. Minimum …

Estimating Curtis Yarvin’s IQ

With some basic stats and help from twatter user MandelBrod, it was fairly simple to compute an estimate of his IQ. Yarvin was in the SMPY, a longitudinal study of talented youth which has various cohorts of varying ability. He was almost certainly selected into the 3rd one of 1/10000th talent, based on his birth …

Profiles of Anime Fans

note: haven't written in a while as i am working on getting something written under my real name (which i will not promote here) and a lengthy documentation of the IQs/ability tilts of different races Decently representative fan profiles should be easy to make with this website, who's profiles I will describe later in the …

DALLE-mini – Spanish vs English

note - this can also be interpreted as "a fucking disgusting girl in the scorching desert", possibly responsible for the discrepancy slightly less accurate translation, but was interpreted more accurately by the machine

Indicator that the Wrong Ship Won

this post will be used as evidence of my homosexuality in the 4th reich but w/e A very easy way to see if the author chose the wrong couple to get together is to compare the ship writing count between the canon ship and the competing ship. That is, the # of fanfictions on fanfiction.net …

On Ideology

Ideology is to me a set of beliefs that happen to cluster together which can be formally recognized or not. I think these are due to certain core beliefs which determine the rest of the beliefs. Let me offer a few examples to illustrate this. Libertarianism "Liberty is of upmost importance" With only this phrase …

Forecasting when IPv4 is 1% of all addresses

metaculus question using scuffed paint picture i'd say it's somewhere between 2037 and 2064

Attempt to Forecast When IPV6 hits 50%

scraped data here: https://archive.org/details/ipv6forecastingdata my code (hw3 takes like 10 minutes): https://archive.org/details/mycodelol TL;DR There is a question on metaculus where people are forecasting when IPv6 is going to hit 50% of traffic, and I am going to try to answer it. Key findings: -Forecasting the last 1021 days with the first 4000 days with Holt-Winters …

Political Compass Test is Dogshit

No.

The Libertarianism to Dissident Right Pipeline

"Fascism" is just another convenient category where you lump right-wingers who oppose liberal democracy with rabid kooks and ultranationalists, and it's always best to avoid using the language of your enemy. Back to the main topic - those who have followed online spaces should know that the libertarianism->DR pipeline exists. Richard Spencer, Eric Striker, Molyneux, …

Friendly Reminder Frogtwitter is Astroturfed

source skip to 1:30:00 or so. TL;DR: >peter thiel and moldbug knew each other before UR was written, they would talk at their mansion >given moldbug is highly intelligent and persuasive, peter thiel was impressed >4 days into creating UR moldbug was promoted by Andrew Sullivan, who has a very large following >moldbug is clearly …

Cognitive Ability and Political Views

ideological vocabulary here is American (e.g. fiscal conservatism - less regulation and spending)haven't seen good data outside the western world, so the conclusion is western-specific Summary The correlation between IQ and self-reported general conservatism is negative, and libertarian beliefs are positively associated with IQ. The latter relationship is robust after controlling for confounders, and there …